Second episode was all about short term strategies. With idol searches, camp dynamics revolving around returnees, and multiple candidates for a boot, we did not have enough time to reflect on personal content or long term strategies. However, tying in today’s episode with info from last week’s episode is making it easier to interpret some information regarding the longevity and roles of different players. Also, the editors did a good job this time around not keeping any player invisible. Anyway, below is this week’s survivor EDGIC rating:
Under The Radar
Joe (Kama) – UTR1
Following a strong showing last week (CPP4), Joe takes a break this week. It was inevitable that Joe will be front and center of last week’s episode: he is one of the most popular players of this game and he did bring in a lot of his Joey Amazing-ness to the game last week. Being more under the radar this week, however, is NOT a bad thing for Joe. I actually can argue that it’s the other way around. Over at the Kama camp this week, there were only 3 themes running: the tribe having fun and Aubry being antsy about it, wanting to vote returnees out and Aubry being ridiculed, and the idol search. Joe was shown to participate in the dance shenanigans (unlike Aubry who told us about her dismay) and was shown to participate in the idol search. As for the theme of voting out returnees, Aubry took all the heat with a passing remark about him being “scary” but that was brushed off as “down the line”. Looking back at the first episode, Joe did comment about changing up his gameplay and that was shown right after the theme of returning players being “desired allies” versus “early vote outs”. It does not take a lot of thinking that Joe’s prototype tends to survive the pre-merge; however, his edit supports that. His UTR rating this time, I think, is a shield from the theme of returning players getting voted out early.
Aurora (Kama) – UTR1
This episode, Aurora was given one confessional commenting about one immediate camp-life thing: the Kama dance. Otherwise, she was practically completely invisible this episode. This is her second UTR showing back-to-back. This does not fare well for her impact on the game; on the other hand, the editors have not given us any reason to think she may be an early target. Will wait and see.
Gavin (Kama) – UTR2
One confessional, some scenes of him looking for an idol but otherwise, Gavin was practically invisible this episode. Unlike Aurora, he had a slightly stronger showing last episode and his confessionals/scenes this episode were relevant to the game play and not merely a line commenting about spirit on the tribe. Through his comments last week, he is tied in to the theme of new players not wanting returning players and remains pretty relevant.
Eric (Kama) – UTR2
Another UTR Kama tribe member. Eric’s showing is very similar to Gavin’s except he had some more positive content in the challenge.
Julia (Kama) – UTR2
Improved from her prior showing of invisible! She, again, got no confessionals this episode, but was shown in several scenes related to the idol search discussion and talking about Aubry. Unfortunately for her, in both of these scenes, she was a secondary character kind of existing while the action is happening around her. Victoria was given more so the credit in outing Aubry’s game tactics and Julie was given the confessional regarding women and idols – Julia was merely an audience/secondary presence in these conversations. It is difficult to write someone off as unlikely to win when their tribe has never been to tribal council, however, unless Julia has a breakout episode soon, her chances of winning are very slim according to the edit.
Ron (Kama) – UTR2
Ron is a character and he is over the top! His scene with the dance was hilarious. One can argue about an OTT rating, however, that was only one brief scene and his brief other appearances this episode involved him being present while others spoke about Aubry – his presence in this episode was minimal. I am interpreting his dance scene as more of a character development/social game edit more so than an over the top edit. So far, I feel that Ron is getting a good edit with no red flags; I look forward to Kama going to tribal to see how he will be depicted when Kama has to talk strategy. Also, next episode is the last time he gets to use his advantage menu! I feel that Ron has longevity in this game based on the edit so far.
Middle of the Road
Reem (Edge of Extinction) – MOR2
Reem is the first person out on Edge of Extinction Island (is that what they’re calling it?). It is therefore not surprising that we got to spend some ample time with her. Her content, however, was generic shown to depict the hardship of being on the island. She did have emotional moments, but there wasn’t significant depth to that.
Julie (Kama) – MOR2
I debated MOR versus UTR for Julie. I settled for MOR since her content seemed to be of more significance than just passing comments based on pre-established themes. Her comment about women finding idols is a new theme this season. Will wait and see where that goes. Julie is receiving more attention than her prototype of older (by survivor standards) moms usually get without tribal visits. While some content is red flag material (her struggling with camp life, highlighting her struggle at the challenge,…); other material suggests longevity. Will see how she fares next episode.
Victoria (Kama) – MOR3
Last week, Victoria was UTR but did deliver a rather personal line. This week, Victoria was given more gameplay related content. The edit made it look like Victoria was the one observing Aubrys’ tactics of going around and telling people what they want to hear. She was also shown to be the one centered in the discussion with her tribemates about Aubry. She was the one shown to conclude that she needs to cut Aubry out of the game. I debated a CP rating for this week, but her content solely revolved around Aubry which does not qualify for a CP rating. However, I think on the Kama tribe, given no tribal council visits yet, Victoria is already being given significant momentum. Will wait for more thread other than Aubry to decide if her role is only going to be voting Aubry out.
Lauren (Manu) – MOR3
This episode, Lauren again receives a MOR3 rating. Of course, she found an idol and received the attention contestant gets when they do. However, the associated confessional included a lot of personal content as well as strategy talk. She does not want to tell Kelley about her idol! From a strategic point of view, that’s great. From an Edgic point of view, this may be going in one of two directions: Scenario one is highlighting Lauren’s story in the game as a fan who builds bonds with her idols and then outplays them (which would be awesome, coz I like Lauren). However, a lot of Lauren’s survivor story so far has been about her bond with Kelley and it is possible that highlighting her strategy talk about Kelley may just be that – feeding into that one dimensional theme. It could be part of Kelley’s story: Kelley wanting people to group search for idols, but that ends up blowing in her face by her closest ally. In all cases, I think Lauren has enough complexity so far that her story is likely going to develop beyond the Kelley-bond.
Chris (Manu) – MOR3
Following a quiet episode last time, Chris had far more to say this episode. He had two confessionals both highlighting some of his long term strategy thoughts, was depicted as a thinker, was highlighted as a team player in the challenge, and had multiple scenes at the camp depicting him as the person having strategy conversation with almost everyone. While some of this might be situational given that his role is suggesting Kelley as a boot was pivotal to the drama, the editors spent time allowing Chris to discuss his reasoning. That said, we still do not know much about Chris outside the game and we haven’t been given enough threads to follow in his story.
Wendy (Manu) – MOR3
I can argue for a CP – however, Wendy’s contribution to this episode was one dimensional: here are the reasons to vote out Kelley Wentworth and thus, I felt that a MOR rating may be more appropriate. Don’t’ get me wrong, I still think that this episode gave Wendy a significant push as as a three dimensional player. Last time, we saw personality and some strategy talk but this time, we saw more strategy talk and this episode introduced Wendy as a player not afraid to play the game (last episode, she did come off as a little stubborn and naïve. It is difficult not to like Wendy. However, from an edgic perspective, this episode pigeon-holed her a bit – if Wendy were a strong contender to win, we would’ve spent a lot of time with her discussing losing her closest ally, long term strategies, etc.. I’m not saying she’s doomed from an edgic perspective, she’s far from it in fact, however, with how much potential material editors likely had this episode, her showing this time decreases that chance.
Complex Personalities
Kelley Wentworth (Manu) -CP4
We saw a lot of Kelley this episode. She had 3 confessionals with varied content: short term strategies, reflection on prior experience, self-awareness, games awareness,… she had several camp scenes highlighting her dynamics with individuals as well as a perceived leader. From a game-play stand-point, however, Kelley is in a bad place – yes, she survived this elimination, but there’s practically no one on her tribe (except for Lauren) who hasn’t considered voting her out yet. If Manu goes to tribal again, Kelley is in the hot seat (unless Wendy is voted out due to the physical injury shown in the teaser). From an edgic standpoint, however, I cannot see how there’s much room for her edit to have been shown differently given that she has been the center of both votes on her tribe. There were a couple of red flags in Kelley’s premiere edit that only made sense after watching episode 2: while all the returnees discussed how they will lay low at first, Kelley was shown planning to make her presence clear from the get-go and her highlighted “I don’t trust anybody” comment last time suggested that she’s paranoid right off the bat while David is staying calm and collected. With Kelley’s edit, I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s receiving a lot of attention since she’s an early boot, is running deep in the game, or somewhere in between – it kind of feels that she would’ve gotten this attention regardless.
David (Manu) - CP5
David was all over the screen this episode: 4 confessionals, 5 different camp scenes, multiple tribal council interventions,… He was just all over the place. His content was also varied with some short term strategy talk, long term strategy talk, and general observations. Multiple of his scenes were with Rick (Devins?) but if you listen closely, Rick was getting the deeper content while David’s interventions seemed more basic observations. What is known is that the edit wanted to make sure to highlight that David and Rick will be an important duo this season.
Rick Devins (Manu) - CP5
While Rick had less confessionals than David, his content was deeper and focused more on his long term plans – always a good sign. Coupled with his scenes from last week focusing on his personal life, it seems clear that Rick is going deep in the game. I would be shocked if Rick is eliminated before the second half of the merge based on his showing these two episodes.
Wardog (Manu) - CPP3
While Wardog had less visibility than some of the other CP players, he was by far shown as the most influential player this episode. By SPV, he was constantly referred to as a pivotal vote, he seemed to have influential conversation with multiple other players and he eventually got what he wanted at tribal. While a lot of his content was situational, we also heard some of his long term thoughts. He did have the opening line of the premiere last week – coupled with this week’s content, Wardog seems to be portrayed as a very influential player this season. I’m reading his edit as a strong contender to win – however, I am slightly less sure about his longevity in comparison to Rick.
Over The Top
Aubry (Kama) - OTTN2
If I were Aubry, I would take the almost invisible edit she had in Game Changersover her edit this season any day of the week. This is the problem with bringing players back: they face the risk of ruining their image. Aubry is regarded as one of the better players in recent years; however, this episode portrayed her as paranoid, unaware, and overall incompetent in regards to her social game. She had significant negative SPVs from multiple members of her tribe; the editors even decided to show a bird preying on an unaware fish!! This episode, the editors did not even try to take any positive spins to Aubry’s gameplay. From her negative comments about Ron’s dance in her confessional which were portrayed as her inability to relax to the efforts to undermine her efforts to connect,…all of these are ominous signs that she is not going to last long in this game. In her first season, she was portrayed as paranoid and insecure with a positive spin of pushing through – we’ve already seen that aspect of Aubry, the editors did not have to show us that again had she not been leaving soon (also, it was super entertaining to watch the series of her attempts to connect with newbies. I would be surprised if Aubry makes it beyond the next couple of episodes (unless Kama goes on an immunity streak until a swap).
Keith (Manu) – OTTN3
Oh, where do I start! The horrible performance challenge was the first we saw of Keith this episode and everything we needed to know about his story this episode was in that challenge. From his inability to swim, to not helping with the snake, to screwing up with the ring tosses,…a complete disaster. He is a huge liability and if Manu kept him, it would’ve been one of the worst mistakes at this point in the game. While Keith’s challenge performance was embarrassing, his exit was depicted as even more negative: 1) He had no self-awareness – made that comment about the tribe not winning challenges without him 2) his shock of being eliminated 3) his hesitation about taking the second chance or not – the editors went as far as running his voice over the closing credits!
I have to admit that I completely misread Keith’s edit last episode. On first watch, I thought Keith’s edit was simply supportive of Reem’s exit story; but then I watched again and convinced myself that Keith’s edit was about him trying hard, his growth story, etc… I was mistaken! Keith’s storyline was about his inability to swim, being “a bit of mama’s boy”, and not building strong bonds when needed. Keith is only 19 years old and this is in no way about judging his ability, but rather about reflecting on how his character got edited on the TV show.
Contenders to Win Based on Edit:
1- Wardog
2- Rick Devins
3- Lauren
4- Kelley Wentworth
5- David
6- Joe
7- Victoria
8- Ron
9- Wendy
10-Julie
11-Eric
12-Gavin
13-Chris
14-Aurora
15-Julia
16-Aubry
17-Reem (Technically still in the game)
18-Keith (Less chances than Reem, even if still in the game)
Predicted Longevity (Post Merge):
1- Rick Devins
2- David
Predicted Elimination in Next Episode:
Manu:
1- Wendy (55%)
2- Kelley Wentworth (45%)
Kama:
1- Aubry (70%)
2- Julie (30%)
Edge of Extinction Prediction:
1- Keith will go but quit
2- Reem will last another week