Last week, I predicted that either Wentworth, Wendy, Aubry, or Julie are going home this week and I was wrong, again! While Chris’s edit was clearly not a contender’s edit (I had him in positions 17 and 13 as likely to win in the past 2 episodes), I did not expect him to be a pre-swap boot! I discuss his edit under his section later.
From an edgic perspective, this episode was a little underwhelming. We do know enough to understand dynamics pre-swap dynamics but in terms of themes/character development, there wasn’t much going on (except for Aubry).
Invisible
Eric(INV)
Mentioned by Victoria as part of their “Anti-Returnees” alliance. Otherwise, completely invisible – does not even get a mention in the challenges.
So far, Eric’s edit included an alliance building scene in the first episode and an idol searching scene in the second with nothing else notable. A lot of people are on a high about Eric and Gavin being “a super obvious” final duo. I am not saying this is not a possibility, however, I still do not feel that Eric or Gavin’s edit is as impressive as some others have been painting it. Kama is very under-edited; so the fact that we got introduced to Eric and Gavin as a pair in the first episode is important, but I still need to see more before I get on the Eric/Gavin bandwagon.
Gavin (INV)
See above. Gavin’s first episode had stronger personal content than Eric’s – but again, I want to see more before I yell: final tribal council!
Julia (INV)
We did have some shots of Julia this time! She was “surprised” that Keith was eliminated (!) and we saw some shots in the challenges. She was mentioned in Victoria’s alliance confessional. Otherwise, back to being invisible. At this point, best case scenario for Julia is likely some sub-story either on the swap tribe or during some period of the game. However, her winner contender chances are pretty low.
Julie (INV)
Just like Julia, we saw some shots of Julie with a quirky little scene with Jeff Probst and some focus during the challenge that showed that she can be helpful in challenges. Otherwise, completely invisible. Other than a mention as part of an alliance, so far, we haven’t heard anything about Julie’s short term or long-term strategies. We have had some quirky scenes earlier in the first two episodes that can be interpreted as setting up some longevity. However, so far, game-wise there does not seem to be great content. I am anticipating that we will be hearing more from Julie during the post-swap portion of this season given the attention she has gotten earlier. Again, Julie is being highlighted as a big contender on other forums. So far, my only comment is that she’s likely getting the growth edit.
Under The Radar
Aurora(UTR1)
Third “under the radar” episode for Aurora. She is definitely an under-edited character. However, I am not writing her off yet. So far, we have gotten some personal content about her and a consistent story about sticking with the returnees. In the brief content she got today, she also seemed to be pretty aware of her standing. It’s okay to be under-edited when your tribe never went to tribal. Her story can go anywhere from here, but unless she gets some much needed complexity soon, she’s unlikely to be an important character this season.
Ron (UTR1)
Wasn’t this the episode where he could last use his advantage? Did we hear him talk about that? Was it even mentioned in the “previously on” segment? That’s bad. I mean, in an episode where we had more than 15 minutes of the edit focused on some chicken and beating that story to death, we could’ve spent 10 seconds checking in with Ron regarding his thoughts on using his advantage. I’m afraid this highlights Ron as a secondary character this season, likely to bring OTT moments more so than be important to the game-play.
Lauren (UTR2)
It seems that Lauren is never given scenes about the current votes. Still, we hear other players saying that they will talk to her – highlighting that she’s not simply a non-entity. I can interpret her edit so far in different ways: 1) Manu is such a mess of a tribe and with Kelley (Lauren’s closest ally) consistently being on the chopping block, Lauren’s input is actually not that important and the edit is protecting her from appearing as simply a side-kick 2) Lauren is actually just going to be a side kick but she got some situational attention in the first two episodes due to finding the idol and highlighting Kelley’s attempts to becoming more social. My intuition is that Lauren has a big story as the season moves along and that her gameplay will unfold as the game goes.
Keith [UTR2]
Despite being the newest addition to Extinction Island, Reem still got the majority of the content.
Middle of the Road
Reem[MOR2]
Reems’ extinction island edit is interesting! We saw her reflect on her game last time. This time, we saw her revert to this motherly role and honestly, there’s a bit of a positive tone to that. She’s coming across as very likeable. Is her commentary about mothering Keith going to be her demise on Extinction Island or does her story come full circle whereby she gets voted out for being too motherly, but being motherly/nurturing is what keeps her going on Extinction Island. I sure hope it’s the latter because Reem is really fun!
Joe [MOR2]
I could argue for an UTR. However, he did make some observations and discussed his position in the game – he had a couple of camp scenes and a confessional discussing those. So overall, MOR this time. Joe’s content though was very basic – it also had a “No Collar” vibe to it. Joe came off as a little unaware – for 3 episodes we have been hearing the same theme over and over (and over and over) again on the Kama camp – returnees have to go. Joe now observes that it’s difficult to read some of the tribe members and wonders if he’s in a bad spot (stress on wonders). The editing showed him as a little naïve in my opinion this episode. Actually, in his first episode, he was also shown as “getting positive vibes from everyone” while Aubry was a little less enthusiastic. Is Joe being edited as naïve and too trusting? Given that he’s a returnee, these too blah episodes in a row do not fare well for him winning.
Victoria [MOR3]
Can argue for CP given alliance-member naming and strategy content. However, her observations this time are nothing new: returnees need to leave; these are all the players that want them to go – one of the returnees needs to go! No more complexity. Basic recount of the general feel on Kama. Still, the fact that Victoria was given that scene says something. However, Victoria now has a bit of a negative light shed on her: She’s talking about Joe and he’s RIGHT BEHIND HER. She’s pointing out Aubry’s flawed tactics and Aubry finds an idol. Is the edit setting her up at a boot in the post-swap? Does she have longevity beyond that? Of the Kama tribe, aside from the returnees, she’s by far the most visible so far. I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes deep in the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Aubry takes her out early in the post-swap, either. However, the Aubry versus Victoria rivalry will be a very important story this season.
Chris[MOR3]
Oh poor Chris! He was a player one can root for – seems pleasant, good in challenges, involved in strategic talk…however, it was clear from the edit in the first 2 episodes that he was not a winner contender. Still, I did not pick on signs that he might be going home so early. I guess his plan getting shot down by Wardog last episode was an ominous sign but it was not edited as such – it just seemed, at the time, as yet another person who could potentially vote for Wentworth adding to the drama. Chris’s blindside highlights a few things though: 1) Kelley is unaware that David/Rick have been gunning for her – which suggests that she has probably been having game talk with the two of them but the editors want to highlight David going after Kelley 2) It highlights a theme that Kelley has been repeatedly stating: If you gun for me, I’m taking you out. I will discuss these thoughts under Kelley’s and David’s analyses.
Kelley [MOR4]
Went back and forth several times between MOR and CP. I can completely understand a CP edit as well. However, Kelley’s edit this time around was a little too flat for a CP: “If you’re after me, you better watch out”. She said this twice – about Wendy and about Chris. There was no personal content, no long term strategy, and no further explanation of her strategy. Just one simple principle. This almost is coming off as OTT, in a Sandra Diaz kind of way. There’s a bit of a negativity (not warranting negative tone) to Kelley’s edit. First season, she was edited as an observant snarky player. Second season, she was given the underdog/determined edit. This season, she is being portrayed as more neurotic/paranoid (she tells us that she doesn’t trust anyone every episode) and a little brash. While Kelley is one of my favorite players of Survivor, she is not coming across as likeable as she did before. In addition, Kelley has had a lot of changes in her personal life since she last played (she’s married,…) but we have not heard ANYTHING about that so far. We did hear her talk about how she wants to change her strategy in the first episode. Still, I feel that Kelley is not getting the best possible edit she could be, and that does not fare well for her chances as a contender. I hope I’m wrong.
Complex Personalities
Aubry[CPP2]
Aubry is neurotic, obsessive, and over-thinks. That’s probably why she lost Kaoh Rong and why no one wanted to work with her in Game Changers. She’s also likely a pain to be around. However, Aubry is also very determined, loves survivor, and has proven to be a good player. Last episode, Aubry was depicted very negatively – poor social game, no tact, and on the outs. Last week, there was a whole scene about other players not trying to find an idol or trying but not finding it. However, Aubry, feels that she’s in danger and goes out and looks for an idol. Even though she got that one confessional, that was a great confessional: personal – tells us how much she loves the show, what she hasn’t accomplished so far, what she wants to accomplish – good read of her spot in the game, the need to do something about it. It’s all great and serves as redemption from her past episode. There’s a strong positive spin on this as well. This episode put Aubry back on the map and, honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised following today’s episode if Aubry is a finalist.
David[CP5]
David is again very highly visible. He is kind of becoming the narrator of episodes after each challenge. Again, his content these past two episodes have mostly been short-term strategy except for that one conversation with Rick regarding long term work. There are some ominous signs about David’s edit: he wants to vote out Kelley, he “listens to his instincts”, and is repeatedly shown to want to get Kelley out…but then he doesn’t. Will this come back to bite him in the butt? I don’t know. Kelley’s tone has been: “if you come after me, you better watch out” and then David just wants to” “Get Wentworth out” – let’s see.
Rick[CP4]
Rick was again very present. Content this time was mostly directly related to short term strategy. I don’t feel that this episode changed much about Rick’s chances. He will likely go very deep in the game. The “puzzles are hard” comment was very funny.
Wardog[CP3]
Lots of content today – lots of strategy, lots of commentary on the current situation and he is again shown to be the person driving the decisions. He did receive the first confessional of the season and has been given a good balance of personal, short term, and long term strategy scenes. Again, just like Rick, I don’t think that this episode changed much in Wardog’s chances. I still think he’s a strong contender to win this season.
Over The Top
Wendy (OTTN5)
Ah..Wendy! Here’s what we saw in this episode: She had the injury, she got stubborn about the chicken, and she stole the flint. From a gameplay stand-point, this is all very questionable. Why is she doing that? I can’t wrap my head around this.
Now switching to Edgic mode – Wendy seemed to cause a lot of drama at camp and I guess with all the havoc she created at camp, it was difficult to not edit that in. However, the extent of which this was edited in was above and beyond. The edit wanted to show Wendy appear irrational and included a whole lot of negative SPV. She also got 6 confessionals with her repeating herself in different confessionals – seriously, the whole chicken situation took up like a quarter of this episode. It needs to be noted though that despite all the negative showing, she was highlighted as a strong swimmer and a competitor in challenges.
So let’s think of Wendy’s edit so far: first episode, she comes in with some personal content and some strategic talk but made statements like: “I’m awkward” and that’s it’s difficult for her to be social. Second episode she was rather one dimensional: need to vote out Kelley, but this time she’s outright irrational! Still, Wendy is getting significant visibility that seems above and beyond what her story so far calls for. From a game-point perspective, the swap really helps Wendy and I think her not being voted out is a missed opportunity, since she will likely jump ship if low on numbers (likely given Manu versus Kama numbers currently). I think Wendy will run deep in the game and we will revisit her “awkwardness”, “stubbornness”, and irrationality throughout the game. A chaotic player, but edit wise, poor chances to win the game.
Contenders to win based on the edit:
1- Wardog
2- Rick Devens
3- Aubry
4- Lauren
5- Kelley Wentworth
6- David
7- Victoria
8- Gavin
9- Eric
10-Julie
11-Aurora
12-Ron
13-Joe
14-Wendy
15-Julia
16-Reem (Technically still in the game)
17-Chris (Technically still in the game)
18-Keith (Technically still in the game)
Predicted Longevity (Post-Merge)
1- Rick Devens
2- David
Highest chances for a post-swap boot (Next Episode)
- Victoria (ends up with Aubry + 2 Manu and gets voted out)
- Julie (Perceived as older NYC dweller on a Manu strong tribe)
- Wentworth (David finally gets her)
- David (Wentworth finally picks that he’s out to get her)
- Aubry (Social game seen in edit gets highlighted)
- Wendy (Does something irrational)