I have been watching Survivor for many years now. In recent seasons, I've become more and more intrigued by the idea of Edgic and predicting outcomes in Survivor based on the edit. While I've done unofficially in previous seasons, I decided to post my analyses and predictions for Season 38 - just for fun!
For basics about Edgic - check out Martin Holmes' piece in Inside Survivor http://insidesurvivor.com/survivor-edgic-an-introduction-3094 which explains what Edgic is all about.
Below are my ratings for the first episode from the current season: Season 38 - Edge of Extinction. I have a busy job, but I will try to publish my Edgic ratings weekly over the weekend.
Overall, I feel that with the length of this episode, it was difficult to get to know the different characters, especially those on Kama. Still, as has been the case in recent seasons, we got to hear something from most castaways.
Invisible
Julia (Kama)
No confessionals. Some brief shots where she’s in the background. Quick comments about other people (Aubry being a returnee) and very small contribution during the challenge where she shouted out a suggestion. Overall, no real content. Saving grace is that Kama did not go to tribal council and there was no real strategy talk on that tribe. However, starting off as invisible does not fare well for longevity.
Under The Radar
Chris [Manu]
UTR1
I considered an invisible rating, but one line at Tribal Council (generic comment on Reem) and some visibility during the challenge saved Chris from starting his Survivor journey with an INV when he is on a losing tribe. Chris had no confessionals, no personal content, and no strategy talk. What we do know about him is that he is good in challenges and is present in big-group discussions in his tribe. Chris seems to be strong and seems to be blending in just fine – he won’t be voted out on the current Manu tribe. However, lack of any personal/strategy content on episode 1 does not fare well for his chances of winning.
Victoria [Kama]
UTR1
She had one confessional about being a super fan. Otherwise, we saw no real personal or strategy content. However, Victoria’s super fan comment was not a generic “I’ve been watching since day 1” – it referenced a specific incident (wishing for a survivor bluff for her birthday) which is definitely memorable. For seasons with returning players and huge twists, highlighting super-fandom is not uncommon; however, I still find Victoria’s comment to have been placed with an intent to make Victoria likeable to an audience of fans. Kama generally did not have much strategy conversation. Would’ve liked to see more content to consider longevity.
Aurora [Kama]
UTR1
Same boat as Victoria – one confessional, no other real content. Unlike Victoria, Aurora’s content was purely placed for third person reference: Joe. We did learn the fact that Aurora is gay, but otherwise, we didn’t learn much in the first episode. Would’ve liked to see more content to consider longevity.
Julie [Kama]
UTR2
Julie is the 4thwoman on Kama to receive only one confessional without much other content. However, Julie’s confessional was more personal and was derived from actions on camp. We learned that she’s from NYC, learned some information about her experiences at Central Park, and had a scene with her successfully chopping a bamboo despite the limitations. While this may suggest transformation/growth, the background music at the beginning of her scene/confessional was made to suggest that this information was shared to suggest Julie’s early demise on the show. In the challenge, we also get a quick shot of Julie struggling to make it across the rope bridge – while this is subtle, it was unnecessary with Kama dominating in that challenge. I think all of this is foreshadowing that Julie will be strongly considered as an early boot once Kama loses a challenge. For someone like Julie, second episode’s portrayal will be very key to understanding her narrative – is this information introduced to us as part of transformation or justification for an early boot.
Middle of the Road
Lauren [Manu]
MOR3
I liked how quirky and animated Lauren’s confessionals were. She’s a good commentator and I foresee the editors relying heavily on her confessional style, so I guess we’ll be seeing a lot of Lauren. Her bond with Kelley Wentworth was also center of discussion and played a role in voting negotiations. In addition, in the challenge, Lauren was given pretty decent visibility with being one of the few people to successfully cross the balance beam, being chosen to run up to the crow’s house, and being shown actively working on the puzzle. However, Lauren’s content in her confessionals was purely about others: Kelley Wentworth, Joe, and Reem – we learned nothing personal about her, nothing about her game-plan, and she didn’t seem to be driving the boat in terms of discussions about elimination. For the first episode with returnees when it’s expected that the focus will not be on the new players, Lauren had good enough presence, but there wasn’t much complex content.
David [Manu]
MOR2
As a returning player, David was bound to get a lot of content: Jeff describing his game-play, a scene and confessional about how he is forced to play differently this time, and some third person referencing. He certainly got some of that. However, David did not seem to get any more content than what’s guaranteed for a returning player with a good fanbase. He had no visibility at tribal council, he didn’t have much visibility in discussions at camp (discussion with Wardog was more about the latter). And even though he was the first player on his tribe to cross the beam, there was not hardcore celebration by Jeff Probst as was the case with Joe. It might be a good position for David to not be very visible so early in the game. However, it would’ve been reassuring to see a little more content.
Ron [Kama]
MOR2
By virtue of finding the secret advantage (menu), Ron was bound to have a long confessional and scene dedicated to that. However, that scene went way beyond his chase of the advantage and some generic commentary about what that means to his game. During Ron’s scene, we learned about his profession, his willingness to truly play the game, his interest in running deep, and some strategies he is thinking of. This is all great for episode 1 and indicates longevity. Will wait and see what that means in future episodes.
Aubry [Kama]
MORM2
I was worried when Aubry was announced on this case. While Aubry is strong, social, and strategic, her prowess was fully exposed in her first season – unlike the other returnees whose games had significant imperfections first (and second) times around. In addition, while Aubry is strong in challenges, she is not Joe-level strong and would thus be the more dispensable early on in the game. Certainly, her tribemates are already thinking along these lines. Aubry is in the same boat as David with receiving the inevitable content in a returning season (1 confessional, third person content from tribemates, and commentary about her prior game from Jeff). However, while David’s lack of visibility otherwise seemed neutral, Aubry was portrayed to be in a less comfortable situation: right after her confessional about wanting to lay low and strike later, Eric and Gavin are shown planning her demise. In addition, all the awesomeness of returning players that was highlighted at the Kama camp (firestarting,…) was attributed to Joe. I do not think Aubry is in a good position her third time around. Content so far is suggesting a pre-merge boot – let’s see what the upcoming episodes suggest.
Gavin [Kama]
MOR2
We only saw one confessional/scene featuring Gavin. However, unlike his Kama tribe-mates, his confessional included both personal content and strategy talk. It’s too soon to determine Gavin’s longevity or if his strategy talk early on foreshadows a significant role this season, but this is surely a better start than multiple other players on his tribe.
Eric [Kama]
MOR2
Eric’s portrayal was similar to Gavin: 1 scene/confessional with personal and strategy content. However, of the two, Eric was portrayed as the one coming up with the ideas and his confessional displayed far more complex awareness and strategy talk. I’m sticking with a MOR rating given that he only had that one confessional with no other content suggesting further complexity. That said, Eric is portrayed as an important player this season.
Complex Personalities
Wardog [Manu]
CP2
He received the first confessional of the season and right off the gate, we heard a lot of personal content with some complexity to his talk about his gameplay. In camp, Wardog was portrayed as a driver in the tribe’s discussions re: voting, emerging alliances,… He was also visible in tribal council. This is a good opening episode for Wardog and everything about this episode suggests self-awareness and longevity
Wendy [Manu]
CPM3
Wendy had an interesting first episode. She had 3 confessionals – one generic, one personal with a positive tone, and one strategy-based. While her demeanor may be dismissed as over the top, Wendy actually received reasonable content in her screen time. She did have some negative second-person visibility: portrayed as stubborn and difficult to work with and her bad challenge performance was highlighted, we still got to hear some complexity. She’s very animated and I think she will always have good visibility in episodes.
Joe [Kama]
CPP4
Let’s face it, we all knew Joe would be the star of episode one. However, I was actually surprised with the content of Joe’s visibility. Of course, we got the whole “Joe is amazing” SVP from players and Jeff Probst as well as highlighting his camp and challenge value. All of this was abundantly present this episode. However, we also got to hear Joe talk strategy in his confessionals and on-camp. The only worrisome scene was him telling Aubry that he’s getting a good vibe from everyone, but the scenes right after that made Aubry look like the one who might be naïve for not strategizing from the get-go. In all cases, with someone so popular as Joe, his positive visibility may have been inevitable, but his complexity may suggest some growth in his gameplay.
Keith [Manu]
CP4
On first watch, I dismissed Keith’s edit as secondary to Reem’s vote-out as I mistakenly interpreted his early confessional as necessary to justify his difficulties swimming. However, after watching the episode again, it was clear that the editors were specifically trying to flesh out a growth story with Keith from the get-go: he’s the young “mama’s boy” who can’t swim, but has a strong background story and is playing the game and is in it to win it. Keith’s premiere checks every box for a character that will last long and have significant growth in this game: we heard the personal backstory, we heard about his insecurities (can’t swim, away from mom,…), but quickly saw agency in this: he wanted to learn how to swim, he opened up to Reem, but cut her when he felt he couldn’t work with her. Keith did play a role in Reem’s vote-out, but if he weren’t an important character this season, we would’ve only seen him report to the tribe what Reem/Wendy were discussing and we would’ve heard from someone else regarding the situation. Instead, we heard his rationale for not liking what he heard. I think Keith is in it for the long run.
Rick Devins [Manu]
CP4
I was so confused with Rick: on first watch when Jeff would yell Devins, I thought he said Gavin! Tribemates were calling him Rick, then Jeff was calling him Devins – it was very confusing. Anyway, after realizing that Rick and Devins are the same person, it was quite noticeable that Rick had a very strong episode. He had two confessionals: one personal and another strategic, had good visibility at tribal council and demonstrated level-headedness, and had some fun content on camp (“bless her heart”). It is still too early to figure out how deep this complex content will get Rick in the game, but at this time, it looks like Rick is here to stay.
Kelley Wentworth [Manu]
CP3
I have to premise this by saying that Kelley Wentworth is one of my favorite Survivor players. I never rooted for a player to win more than I did for Kelley in Second Chances. That said, I am not blinded by my tendency to root for the underdog and I realize that Kelley Wentworth is a little rough around the edges as a survivor player. Kelley had a very good premiere episode and this is taking into consideration the attention she got by virtue of being a returnee. Kelley had 2 confessionals with complex strategy content, was portrayed as a bit of a leader on the Manu tribe, and had very positive tone following her fall during the challenge. I am certainly hoping that this good episode signifies longevity, but will wait and see what the coming few episodes show
Over The Top
Reem [Manu]
OTTM4
Reem quickly became one of my favorite first-boots. Her confessionals were golden with a ton of sass and attitude. That tribal council was full of great moments as well. While Reem had a lot of over the top moments, she was also portrayed as trying to strategize. Her social game, however, was undermined by the edit. Still, as far as OTT first boots go, Reem was also shown to be reasonable and her arguments in Tribal Council were all valid (I too think ageism played a role, I agree with her: just tell me not to touch your stuff, and throwing Wentworth under the bus is truly justifiable). I wonder how Reem will fare on the Extinction Island.
Contenders to win:
1. Joe
2. Keith
3. Ron
4. Kelley
5. Rick
6. Wardog
7. Eric
8. Gavin
9. Wendy
10. Lauren
11. David
12. Victoria
13. Aurora
14. Aubry
15. Julie
16. Julia
17. Chris
18. Reem (She's technically still in the game!)
Possible boots in next 3 episodes:
- Julie
- Aubry
- Wendy