This week, I’m going to start doing things a little differently by breaking things down not only based on the different castaways EDGIC profiles to get a change to comment on some other observations including story-lines, editing observations, general comments about the season, and well as a chance to get to evaluate my predictions.
General Observations About Editing This Season
With the way that the swap turned out, some of the editing choices this season became much clearer. A general observation is that a lot of what we saw in terms of couplings in the pre-swap seemed to be a preparation for the swap. All the relationships that were highlighted ended up together: Aubry & Victoria; Eric & Gavin; Kelley & Lauren; Rick & David; Aurora & Joe. Clearly, the longer time you spend with someone on a camp, the more likely it is that your storylines will be inter-linked. And so, the fact that these relationships were highlighted could be part of these people’s longevity. However, I’m getting the feeling that some of the relationships that were highlighted and led to speculations among EDGIC enthusiasts (e.g. Eric and Gavin) may have just been warm up for the swap portion of the game.
Another observation this season is that there’s a lot of very entertaining and slightly (or in some cases overtly) over the top characters that make confessionals/story-telling entertaining. Rick Devens is one example, but Julie, Wendy (we’ll get to that), and Ron also come to mind as people who are fun to listen to. I wonder how much this is impacting the editing choices.
Rick’s Departure
I failed again! Last week, I predicted that Victoria, Julie, Kelley, David, Aubry, or Wendy will be eliminated this week and I went as far as predicting that Rick (and David) are the two players that I feel have guaranteed longevity past the merge. Since episode 1, I had Rick in my Top 5 contenders to win (5,2,2, respectively). Clearly, I had a wrong read.
My read on Rick’s edit throughout his game was that he will go deep in the game and that the edit was making him very likeable – I read too much into his confessionals as setting him up as a long term player with a good social and strategic grasp of the game. I did not expect him to be a pre-merge boot.
In the episode though, once Lesu lost, he was my pick to be eliminated from an EDGIC perspective – it seemed that all other Lesu tribe members had more to their story than Rick. Anyway, will discuss Rick’s edit this episode in a separate section.
The Lesu 4
The whole Lesu love and having each tribe member pretty much discussion how much love and respect they had to the other remaining tribe members was interesting. It is possible that that was all the content at Tribal and on camp; but it was highlighted in such a way that would make the general viewer want to root for them – I wonder if this is setting the stage for a Lesu 4 comeback and for that alliance being pretty impactful down the line. This would be in contrast to highlighting Kama as the “Oh so happy” tribe in previous episodes. While this episode made this sound likely – the focus from previous episodes (Kelley & Lauren are tight; David is after Kelley; and Wardog is always the determining vote) makes this slightly unlikely. Also, I don’t think that makes a lot of sense from a gameplay perspective.
Another thing that became apparent from this episode was that some of the things that were previously highlighted (wanting to vote out Wentworth) may have been highlighted in episodes purely as distraction and that these 5 on Lesu were actually always tighter than the edit made us think.
Edge of Extinction Island
On the one hand, the island is giving us a lot of insight into some characters. However, on the other hand, I feel that the fact that viewers don’t know what the rules of the island are yet, spending so much time there is starting to get frustrating.
The Characters
Invisible
Aurora (INV)
She was mentioned by Joe and we saw glimpses of her at the swap; but overall, she was invisible this episode. Aurora has one story so far: being close to Joe. We don’t know anything else about her (other than that she’s gay). I am worried about Aurora on her new tribe – Joe is clearly being targeted, but she might end up being taken out since he’s such an asset in challenges. The fact that their relationship keeps getting highlighted and the negative focus Joe is getting is probably an ominous sign for Aurora.
Under The Radar
Julia (UTR1)
Other than being the reaction queen, Julia has virtually had no story this season. Even her scene looking through Joe’s stuff seemed more about Ron (and negative light on Joe) rather than her. The good news for her is that she’s likely not leaving soon. The bad news is that, at least from the edit’s perspective, she has minimal chances of being an important character.
Julie (UTR2)
Julie is hilarious. Her confessionals have a lot of character and she’s really quirky. I’m sure she’s giving the editors a lot of material to work with. We saw some personal content in the first 2 episodes. There’s a lot of talk on EDGIC forums that she is this big contender to win this season. So far, I’m reading her edit as a very funny character that is giving funny material to be included. If her edit was as important as people are suggesting, we would’ve seen her talk some strategy this episode or make some comments about her alliances/game-play. She still didn’t have to go to tribal, so I’m not saying her chances are doomed – I just feel we need more to put her as such a strong contender to win.
Gavin (UTR1)
Great episode 1 and flat since then. He had some minimal content about being a fan who observed that this tribe swap outcome has not happened before. Last week, I detailed why I’m not as enthused (yet) about him and Eric being “a super obvious final episode” contenders – that did not change.
Eric (UTR2)
Same boat as Gavin. He did have some more content that are focused on Wendy and the chicken. I wonder how much of including his confessional interrupted by the chicken was about creating a funny moment about the latter. One thing that came up in this episode was Eric being insensitive to Wendy’s relationship with the chicken – he was portrayed as the one graphically describing the killing of the chicken while she became furious. I wonder if that portrays him as not too socially aware – will see if there’s any other evidence of that theme in future episodes, otherwise, this is likely just about highlighting Wendy’s irrational attachment to the chicken.
Middle of the Road
Ron(MOR2)
The editors did a great job with the Ron/Joe/Julia scene. Ron had a pretty good episode after being under the radar for 2 episodes in a row, including last week when it was the last time he could play his advantage. On the new Kama tribe, the division (so far) is clear: Joe/Aurora versus Julie/Julia/Ron – however, that was highlighted through Ron and Joe. Ron was portrayed as smart, deceitful, and as someone that comes up with plans. These are positive things and go with his story of being deceitful despite being a teacher. This consistency in his story is a good sign. The only hit he has had so far to his edit is ignoring his advantage last episode. However, on the flip side, the editors could have chosen to completely ignore him finding an advantage in the first place since it never came into play – so it is possible that Ron is being highlighted as a crafty character. In all cases, I feel that Ron’s edit so far is relatively good for a player who never visited tribal council.
Victoria(MOR2)
We always check in with Victoria, even if we don’t’ need to. The point about the chicken was made abundantly clear this episode (and last episode) that we did not need another person highlighting that. But, Victoria did and then discussed why it’s important to vote out Wendy. Is this merely because of the scenes we saw from the next episode (Victoria, Aubry, and Wendy possibly working together)? Could be. However, Victoria has been getting consistent content throughout that I think there’s more to the story.
Then there’s also the Victoria/Aubry dynamic. Victoria clearly was not drinking Aubry’s Kool-Aid in episode 2 and now they’re on the same tribe. My first inclination after last week’s episode and figuring that they’re on the same tribe was the Victoria is going home somehow. I still think that’s a possibility. Eric/Gavin can turn on Victoria since she’s “plotting against them”. However, both Victoria and Aubry were shown discussing Wendy this time – if these three make an alliance, It can be argued that the road to that has been foreshadowed.
Reem(MOR2)
She’s super funny. I guess that as long as she’s on the Edge of Extinction Island, we will hear her throw some sass.
Keith(MOR2)
He lasted longer than I expected on the island. His edit though does not support him coming back to the game.
Rick (MOR5)
I’ve given him CPs in all previous episodes. However, this time, I’m only giving MOR. My reasoning is that Rick’s character was not developed any further during today’s episode. We saw 5 confessionals but here’s the content of each confessional: #1: Narration and a funny comment about Wendy; #2: Basic observation that the tribe will fracture real quick; #3: Narration about Wendy being the odd person out; #4: Obvious observation about needing to turn against people you trust #5: More narration. His scenes on camp were also basic observations except for the one scene about the reasoning for voting out Lauren – but we didn’t hear complex content about how that can affect his game etc,… His TC content was also funny/personable, but not too complex. Overall, this was a good vote-out episode that cemented him as a very likeable player (who will probably be brought back for a second chance) but did not add to his complexity.
Complex Personalities
Chris(CPP2)
I never thought I would have an eliminated player as a CPP2 – but Chris’s content this episode was super complex and super positive. Chris leaving so early in the game was not expected. His archetype (nice, athletic, social, kinda strategic male) is never a pre-swap vote-out and his edit did not show him in a negative light to support his departure (even him disclosing the plan to Wardog was not portrayed as very negative). This week’s episode was great for Chris though – he was shown as very introspective and thoughtful, he told us about who he is outside the game, showed some growth, and his confessionals were all super in-line with the theme of this season: can you reflect on things, and his nurturing behavior of getting the fish and sharing it after Reem/Keith being brutal and him spending some time self-reflecting was all positive… I think that Chris is likely to be the player to eventually return from Edge of Extinction. Chris had more positive content on camp. Kama had a very shocked reaction to him leaving and said that he was “carrying the tribe”. David said something about not taking care of the fire as well as Chris did,…all positive content. All fares well for his chances to return to the game.
Joe(CPN2)
Last week, I discussed how Joe is being portrayed as naïve. This episode cemented that. The whole scene with Ron was such a negative portrayal of his read on people. Joe is probably a very likeable person in real life and I think portraying him negatively will likely never be about aspects of his personality but more so his gameplay and this has been the case this season. I do not think that Joe has good chances to win this season.
I went back and forth between a complex personality versus MOR rating. I could argue for either. However, in his confessional this time, Joe told us about how he is trying to play the game differently, where he stands currently, and what his next steps are. This is complex material – although it’s slightly superficial. I ended up going with CP because I feel that this episode truly cemented Joe’s narrative for the season.
Aubry(CP2)
What a turn around last week. However, instead of giving her a break this week, the editors chose to highlight, again, why Aubry makes it far in survivor: she’s always thinking and thinking outside the box. Her confessional about Wendy was all CP: Aubry made some observations, but then discussed her options, and how working with Wendy would help with her long term plans. In the first two episodes, I read Aubry’s edit as ominous, however, her longevity is becoming clearer with each episode.
David (CP4)
Just like Rick, I felt that David’s content on camp and in the confessionals was basic warranting a middle of the road rating. However, unlike Rick, David’s tribal council content was beyond the basic and funny content. His comment about feeling that he “needed to play survivor” and how that was linked to his previous experience on his past season had a lot of depth. Yes, it’s dramatic and would have been included regardless but it did give more depth to David’s character this episode.
One thing that I wanted to note about David was his challenge performance. It’s crap! In pre-season interviews, David told this story about how he printed all these puzzles and how he’s a puzzle guru and what not. Of the 4 challenges his tribes lost, he participated in the puzzle portion of 3 of them!
Another thing to note about David is that so far, his two big story lines are: 1) Working with Rick 2) Getting Wentworth out. Now Rick is out and Wentworth is still there – I think the edit is preparing us for David’s regret for not taking Kelley out when he could. He needed to “listen to his instincts” as he told us last episode.
Kelley(CP4)
Just like David and Rick, her camp/confessional content was not deep enough for a CP rating, but her TC content showed a vulnerable side of Kelley’s that we’ve rarely seen before – maybe when she lost the F4 challenge in Second Chances? I could still give a MOR rating – but decide to give a CP like all the other returnees this time.
Edit wise, her story so far has been that of someone who will take out the threat before they do take her out. She also had SPV on the new Manu tribe as “of course” she is the “ring leader”. Is that positive or negative, I don’t know, but Kelley threat status is super highlighted.
Lauren(CP5)
This is Lauren’s most visible and most complex episode so far. In this episode, so saw her vulnerable side – missing her family, we saw her having a good read on the game (Rick is likely to win anyone over), we saw her discuss her idol and what she wanted to do with it, and we saw her cement her long-term alliance with Kelley (they want to work together). I have to admit, given that her idol was not highlighted in the “previously on”, I knew in the episode that Lauren would not be leaving. It feels that this episode, however, gave Lauren potential for longevity beyond the Kelley/Lauren storyline.
Wardog(CP3)
Episode 1, I rated Wardog as 6thmost likely contender to win but he has been my top pick since episode 2. I feel that this episode further cemented his strong edit so far. He didn’t have as much visibility as the other characters on his tribe, but what he got was pure CP. On camp, he talked about voting Wendy out and had that scene with the probabilities of the tribe swap turning out the way it did. But then, he had that one confessional that was golden: he explained his position in the game, told us about his personal life and how that affects the game, how he never wants to close doors, and who can help him to win the million. That is a true winner’s quote. Together with him opening the season with the quote that mirrors this (highlighting his career and general outlook at the game) fares very well for his chances to win the game.
Contenders
1. Wardog
2. Aubry
3. Lauren
4. Victoria
5. Ron
6. Kelley Wentworth
7. Chris (Technically still in the game)
8. Gavin
9. Eric
10. Julie
11. David
12. Aurora
13. Joe
14. Rick Devens (Technically still in the game)
15. Reem (Technically still in the game)
16. Wendy
17. Julia
18. Keith (Technically still in the game)
Most Likely to be Voted Out Next Week
Lesu
- David (70%)
- Kelley (20%)
- Wardog (10%)
Manu
- Wendy (50%)
- Victoria (30%)
- Eric (20%)
Kama
- Aurora (70%)
- Joe (30%)
And if I were to follow my hunch, of all castaways, I think Aurora will be voted out next time.